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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.16+5.67vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+2.76vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+1.08vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+2.25vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.52+0.01vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College-0.52+4.29vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.18-0.81vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+2.17vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.44-1.19vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.96vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-4.45vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.35-2.03vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-5.97vs Predicted
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14Washington College-2.27-0.12vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.97-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.67University of Pennsylvania1.166.6%1st Place
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4.76Georgetown University1.8614.0%1st Place
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4.08Cornell University1.7918.4%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.3%1st Place
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5.01Old Dominion University1.5212.6%1st Place
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10.29SUNY Maritime College-0.522.6%1st Place
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6.19U. S. Naval Academy1.189.5%1st Place
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10.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.1%1st Place
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7.81Columbia University0.445.5%1st Place
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9.04Christopher Newport University-0.843.6%1st Place
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6.55George Washington University1.077.1%1st Place
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9.97Fordham University-0.352.2%1st Place
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7.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.9%1st Place
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13.88Washington College-2.270.4%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University-0.971.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adra Ivancich | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.0% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 18.4% | 17.5% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 12.6% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 14.0% | 5.2% |
| Ava Farley | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 3.6% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Laura Smith | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 1.9% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 11.6% | 3.7% |
| Lina Carper | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 15.9% | 63.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 30.8% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.