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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.79+2.97vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+2.73vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.07+3.60vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+2.20vs Predicted
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5Fordham University-0.32+5.10vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.44+1.86vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16-0.31vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.52+2.35vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.56vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-3.12vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.52-6.07vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.95vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.88vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-1.78vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.97Cornell University1.7919.2%1st Place
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4.73Georgetown University1.8614.1%1st Place
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6.6George Washington University1.076.2%1st Place
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.3%1st Place
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10.1Fordham University-0.322.7%1st Place
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7.86Columbia University0.445.6%1st Place
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6.69University of Pennsylvania1.167.4%1st Place
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10.35SUNY Maritime College-0.522.2%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Naval Academy1.187.5%1st Place
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6.88St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.2%1st Place
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4.93Old Dominion University1.5213.4%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.3%1st Place
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9.12Christopher Newport University-0.843.0%1st Place
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12.22Princeton University-0.971.1%1st Place
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13.87Washington College-2.270.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 19.2% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.1% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 4.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 14.2% | 5.1% |
| Ava Farley | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Lina Carper | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 3.9% |
| Laura Smith | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 30.9% | 20.2% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 15.3% | 64.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.