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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.03+1.82vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University0.18+5.89vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.51+3.78vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.09+0.93vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.21+0.24vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.64+0.69vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.38-0.08vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia-0.58+2.22vs Predicted
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9University of Washington-1.39-1.45vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii0.70-3.99vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-0.86vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.59+1.21vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-4.04vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.46-1.68vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-2.41-0.76vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14-3.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.82University of Hawaii2.0331.8%1st Place
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7.89Salve Regina University0.184.7%1st Place
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6.78University of Hawaii0.516.7%1st Place
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4.93University of Hawaii1.0911.2%1st Place
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5.24Salve Regina University1.2111.1%1st Place
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6.69Western Washington University0.646.0%1st Place
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6.92University of Southern California0.385.8%1st Place
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10.22University of Virginia-0.581.4%1st Place
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7.55University of Washington-1.395.0%1st Place
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6.01University of Hawaii0.707.5%1st Place
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10.14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.592.0%1st Place
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13.21University of California at Davis-1.590.7%1st Place
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8.96University of California at Los Angeles-0.233.4%1st Place
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12.32University of California at San Diego-1.460.9%1st Place
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14.24University of California at Berkeley-2.410.4%1st Place
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12.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.141.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Patton | 31.8% | 21.9% | 17.4% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Hanrahan | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Frances Tarpey-Schwed | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Carew | 11.2% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Cronin | 11.1% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Emily Smith | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Theodore Knobel | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| Grace Chitouras | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 18.1% | 19.3% | 12.6% |
| John Cornet | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 11.4% | 18.8% | 47.4% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 18.0% | 11.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.