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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University1.21+4.23vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.64+4.54vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii0.70+3.00vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.03-1.12vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University0.18+2.58vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.09-0.98vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii0.51-0.34vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-1.39-0.42vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.38-2.11vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.58+0.12vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.46+1.27vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.45+0.83vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-1.59+0.15vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-5.20vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-4.87vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-2.41-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.23Salve Regina University1.2110.8%1st Place
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6.54Western Washington University0.646.0%1st Place
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6.0University of Hawaii0.707.8%1st Place
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2.88University of Hawaii2.0331.0%1st Place
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7.58Salve Regina University0.185.0%1st Place
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5.02University of Hawaii1.0910.5%1st Place
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6.66University of Hawaii0.517.3%1st Place
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7.58University of Washington-1.394.8%1st Place
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6.89University of Southern California0.386.1%1st Place
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10.12University of Virginia-0.581.9%1st Place
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12.27University of California at San Diego-1.461.2%1st Place
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12.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.450.8%1st Place
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13.15University of California at Davis-1.590.9%1st Place
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8.8University of California at Los Angeles-0.233.8%1st Place
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10.13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.591.9%1st Place
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14.31University of California at Berkeley-2.410.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
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Peter Cronin | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tyler Nolasco | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Theodore Knobel | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Samuel Patton | 31.0% | 20.9% | 17.9% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Molly Hanrahan | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Morgan Carew | 10.5% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Frances Tarpey-Schwed | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Emily Smith | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Edward Ansart | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Hannah Mercurio | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 2.1% |
Jonathan Hickey | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 18.7% | 17.2% | 10.5% |
Jeffrey Romeo | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 21.9% | 17.8% |
Grace Chitouras | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 11.7% | 16.6% | 23.4% | 21.1% |
Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
Ryan Martin | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 1.5% |
John Cornet | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 20.1% | 45.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.