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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+5.26vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University-0.84+7.01vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+1.01vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+0.66vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.07+1.45vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.52-0.91vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-0.08vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.16-1.27vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+1.12vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.52+0.25vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.18-4.59vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.44-4.24vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-0.77vs Predicted
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14Fordham University-0.32-3.76vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.4%1st Place
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9.01Christopher Newport University-0.843.1%1st Place
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4.01Cornell University1.7918.9%1st Place
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4.66Georgetown University1.8614.8%1st Place
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6.45George Washington University1.078.2%1st Place
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5.09Old Dominion University1.5212.6%1st Place
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6.92St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.8%1st Place
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6.73University of Pennsylvania1.167.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.4%1st Place
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10.25SUNY Maritime College-0.521.9%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Naval Academy1.187.0%1st Place
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7.76Columbia University0.445.0%1st Place
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12.23Princeton University-0.970.9%1st Place
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10.24Fordham University-0.322.5%1st Place
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13.87Washington College-2.270.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deana Fedulova | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 1.7% |
| Sophia Devling | 18.9% | 17.8% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.8% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 12.6% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 12.6% | 3.9% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 5.1% |
| Ava Farley | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 29.0% | 20.2% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 3.6% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 14.6% | 64.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.