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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+4.90vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University4.31+3.71vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.26vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University3.84+3.10vs Predicted
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5University of Washington3.09+4.74vs Predicted
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6Yale University4.19+0.04vs Predicted
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7University of Texas1.82+6.70vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.99-1.38vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine3.43-0.36vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.61-1.67vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College3.24-1.53vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.98-5.03vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.00-3.02vs Predicted
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14Harvard University4.17-8.16vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.42-0.34vs Predicted
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16University of Notre Dame1.25-0.95vs Predicted
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17University of Saint Thomas-0.90+0.57vs Predicted
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18University of Minnesota2.25-5.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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5.71Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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7.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.1Salve Regina University3.840.1%1st Place
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9.74University of Washington3.090.0%1st Place
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6.04Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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13.7University of Texas1.820.0%1st Place
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6.62University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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8.64University of California at Irvine3.430.0%1st Place
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8.33Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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9.47Eckerd College3.240.0%1st Place
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6.97Stanford University3.980.1%1st Place
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9.98SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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5.84Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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14.66Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.05University of Notre Dame1.250.0%1st Place
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17.57University of Saint Thomas-0.900.0%1st Place
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12.43University of Minnesota2.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Kirkland | 10.1% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Bouchard | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Clancy | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Felipe Lopez | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Morris | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlynn Taylor | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 17.9% | 21.7% | 17.5% | 2.4% |
| Nicholas Voss | 8.4% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rex Cameron | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alan Alkins | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Verney | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Justin Doane | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| John Stokes | 11.1% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Krause | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 22.3% | 28.9% | 4.7% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 12.2% | 21.3% | 35.0% | 7.1% |
| Eric Miller | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 84.8% |
| Matthew Thompson | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 14.6% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.