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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.18+5.41vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.16+4.74vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+3.36vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.79+0.11vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+2.01vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.80-2.01vs Predicted
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7Fordham University-0.32+3.04vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.07-1.38vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.52-3.98vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.77vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.52-0.49vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.44-4.28vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-0.74vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.96vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41U. S. Naval Academy1.187.7%1st Place
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6.74University of Pennsylvania1.165.3%1st Place
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6.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.0%1st Place
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4.11Cornell University1.7918.4%1st Place
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7.01St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.8%1st Place
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3.99Georgetown University1.8018.3%1st Place
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10.04Fordham University-0.322.1%1st Place
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6.62George Washington University1.078.3%1st Place
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5.02Old Dominion University1.5213.1%1st Place
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9.23Christopher Newport University-0.842.9%1st Place
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10.51SUNY Maritime College-0.521.9%1st Place
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7.72Columbia University0.444.9%1st Place
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12.26Princeton University-0.970.7%1st Place
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10.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.5%1st Place
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13.94Washington College-2.270.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 18.4% | 16.3% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Doble | 18.3% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 4.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Marina Conde | 13.1% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 15.4% | 4.3% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 14.8% | 29.8% | 19.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 12.7% | 4.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 15.0% | 65.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.