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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.07+5.71vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College-0.52+8.46vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+0.99vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.18+2.43vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.80-0.99vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+1.14vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.44+0.76vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.52-3.00vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+1.11vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.16-3.29vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92-4.86vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.32-1.84vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.83vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-1.67vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.71George Washington University1.077.2%1st Place
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10.46SUNY Maritime College-0.522.1%1st Place
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3.99Cornell University1.7919.4%1st Place
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6.43U. S. Naval Academy1.187.9%1st Place
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4.01Georgetown University1.8017.9%1st Place
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7.14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.2%1st Place
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7.76Columbia University0.445.0%1st Place
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5.0Old Dominion University1.5211.8%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.9%1st Place
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6.71University of Pennsylvania1.166.6%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.5%1st Place
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10.16Fordham University-0.322.2%1st Place
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9.17Christopher Newport University-0.843.1%1st Place
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12.33Princeton University-0.970.7%1st Place
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13.9Washington College-2.270.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 14.2% | 5.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 19.4% | 17.2% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Emily Doble | 17.9% | 17.1% | 16.4% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Marina Conde | 11.8% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 3.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 1.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 30.5% | 20.5% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 14.6% | 64.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.