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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+4.78vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.19+4.11vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.17+3.21vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College3.24+5.49vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.15vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine3.43+3.02vs Predicted
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7University of Miami3.99-0.10vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.84-0.80vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.98-1.95vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University4.31-4.34vs Predicted
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11University of Washington3.09-0.88vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.61-3.86vs Predicted
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13University of Texas1.82+0.79vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.60-5.64vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota2.25-2.37vs Predicted
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16Tulane University1.64-1.72vs Predicted
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17University of Notre Dame1.25-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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6.11Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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6.21Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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9.49Eckerd College3.240.0%1st Place
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7.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Irvine3.430.0%1st Place
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6.9University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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7.2Salve Regina University3.840.1%1st Place
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7.05Stanford University3.980.1%1st Place
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5.66Roger Williams University4.310.1%1st Place
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10.12University of Washington3.090.0%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University3.610.1%1st Place
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13.79University of Texas1.820.0%1st Place
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8.36SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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12.63University of Minnesota2.250.0%1st Place
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14.28Tulane University1.640.0%1st Place
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15.13University of Notre Dame1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Kirkland | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Morris | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Stokes | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Verney | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Austen Anderson | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Rex Cameron | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Voss | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Clancy | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Justin Doane | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Sean Bouchard | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Felipe Lopez | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Alan Alkins | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Caitlynn Taylor | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 22.5% | 20.0% |
| Harry Scott | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Thompson | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 9.8% |
| Schuyler Hemmerdinger | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 16.4% | 25.0% | 23.6% |
| Nathaniel Walden | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 11.7% | 21.2% | 43.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.