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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.80+2.94vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+1.99vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.07+3.65vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.16+2.66vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.52-0.05vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.18+0.36vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+0.03vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+2.29vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.97+3.29vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92-3.60vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.52-0.54vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.32-1.85vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.84vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.44-6.12vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94Georgetown University1.8018.1%1st Place
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3.99Cornell University1.7918.9%1st Place
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6.65George Washington University1.077.8%1st Place
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6.66University of Pennsylvania1.166.6%1st Place
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4.95Old Dominion University1.5212.8%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Naval Academy1.187.6%1st Place
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7.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.3%1st Place
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10.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.1%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University-0.970.4%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.928.0%1st Place
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10.46SUNY Maritime College-0.522.0%1st Place
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10.15Fordham University-0.322.6%1st Place
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9.16Christopher Newport University-0.843.0%1st Place
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7.88Columbia University0.444.2%1st Place
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13.77Washington College-2.270.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Doble | 18.1% | 18.3% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 18.9% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 12.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 16.9% | 12.2% | 4.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 30.4% | 21.9% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 14.5% | 5.1% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 4.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 2.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 61.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.