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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.5%
Within 2 Positions
5.4
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.52+5.26vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+4.03vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.29+4.53vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.27+3.52vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.43+6.43vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.17+1.00vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.71+2.05vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.04+12.33vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+9.59vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+1.35vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39+4.49vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University1.42+3.23vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.35-6.87vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.12-7.21vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University0.04+5.33vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.90-8.05vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis0.42+2.19vs Predicted
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19Salve Regina University1.15-1.66vs Predicted
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20Tulane University0.89-2.09vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Barbara1.72-6.23vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles0.82-2.96vs Predicted
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23University of California at Irvine1.35-6.83vs Predicted
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24University of Southern California2.47-13.01vs Predicted
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25University of California at San Diego1.81-10.77vs Predicted
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26University of Wisconsin0.68-6.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.26Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.53Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.52Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
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11.43Eckerd College2.430.0%1st Place
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8.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.0U. S. Naval Academy3.170.1%1st Place
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10.05Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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21.33Arizona State University0.040.0%1st Place
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19.59University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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12.35California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.0%1st Place
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16.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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16.23Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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7.13Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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7.79College of Charleston3.120.1%1st Place
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21.33Arizona State University0.040.0%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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20.19University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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17.34Salve Regina University1.150.0%1st Place
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17.91Tulane University0.890.0%1st Place
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14.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.0%1st Place
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19.04University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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16.17University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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10.99University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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14.23University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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19.13University of Wisconsin0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holz | 10.5% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AJ Reiter | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Mace | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walker Banks | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Madigan | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annie Schmidt | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle McManus | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 17.3% | 29.3% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Allyson Donahue | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle McManus | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 17.3% | 29.3% | 0.0% |
| James Moody | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Miranda | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Oswalt | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Grant Rickon | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| David Meyerson | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.