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📊 Prediction Accuracy
19.2%
Within 2 Positions
5.3
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.52+5.25vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.29+5.40vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.35+4.24vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+1.99vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.71+5.13vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+13.53vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.60vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.12+0.22vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.27-1.73vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.04+11.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis0.42+9.19vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.90-2.66vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.82+5.80vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University1.15+3.41vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.17-7.39vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.43-4.91vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University1.42-0.86vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy2.22-5.65vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine1.35-3.14vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego1.81-5.59vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-4.40vs Predicted
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22University of Southern California2.47-11.17vs Predicted
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23Tulane University0.89-4.59vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Barbara1.72-9.33vs Predicted
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25University of Wisconsin0.68-5.82vs Predicted
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26Arizona State University0.04-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.4Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.24Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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5.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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10.13Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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19.53University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.22College of Charleston3.120.1%1st Place
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7.27Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
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21.46Arizona State University0.040.0%1st Place
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20.19University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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9.34Tufts University2.900.1%1st Place
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18.8University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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17.41Salve Regina University1.150.0%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Naval Academy3.170.1%1st Place
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11.09Eckerd College2.430.0%1st Place
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16.14Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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12.35California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.0%1st Place
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15.86University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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14.41University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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16.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Southern California2.470.0%1st Place
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18.41Tulane University0.890.0%1st Place
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14.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.0%1st Place
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19.18University of Wisconsin0.680.0%1st Place
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21.46Arizona State University0.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holz | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AJ Reiter | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.4% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annie Schmidt | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Mace | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle McManus | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 34.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| James Moody | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Miranda | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Madigan | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walker Banks | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Oswalt | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Rickon | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| David Meyerson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Kyle McManus | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 15.0% | 34.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.