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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+4.76vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.81vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara-0.40+9.48vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.71vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+0.92vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.51-0.75vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.52+1.74vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.43+0.93vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-2.41+11.38vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.58+3.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.91+4.01vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+0.06vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83+1.58vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.34+2.63vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-5.40vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.03-0.75vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-6.10vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.43-0.90vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49-1.64vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.66-2.09vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-1.99-1.90vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-2.03-2.75vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-1.56-5.36vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-16.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.3510.1%1st Place
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4.81California Poly Maritime Academy1.6213.5%1st Place
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12.48University of California at Santa Barbara-0.402.4%1st Place
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4.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.0%1st Place
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5.92California Poly Maritime Academy1.2010.6%1st Place
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5.25University of California at Santa Barbara1.5113.1%1st Place
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8.74University of California at San Diego0.525.3%1st Place
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8.93University of California at Los Angeles0.434.3%1st Place
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20.38University of California at Berkeley-2.410.2%1st Place
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13.23University of California at San Diego-0.581.9%1st Place
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15.01University of California at Davis-0.910.7%1st Place
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12.06University of California at Santa Cruz-0.292.1%1st Place
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14.58University of California at Santa Cruz-0.831.5%1st Place
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16.63California State University Channel Islands-1.340.6%1st Place
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9.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.264.3%1st Place
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15.25University of California at Los Angeles-1.031.1%1st Place
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10.9University of California at Los Angeles-0.033.0%1st Place
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17.1University of California at Los Angeles-1.430.7%1st Place
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17.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.490.5%1st Place
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17.91University of California at San Diego-1.660.5%1st Place
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19.1Arizona State University-1.990.2%1st Place
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19.25University of California at Davis-2.030.4%1st Place
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17.64University of California at San Diego-1.560.1%1st Place
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7.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.836.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 13.5% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katelon Egan | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 16.0% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Schimmel | 13.1% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Alexander | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cornet | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 31.2% |
| Sean Lipps | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Kamille Romero | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Noam Elroi | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Silveira | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Florence Duff | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| samson grunwald | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| David Spector | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Milan | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% |
| David Carrion | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% |
| Stephen Burt | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.2% |
| Will Sutton | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 15.5% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 15.9% | 16.2% |
| Yasminna Sanchez | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.