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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.76vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+4.07vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.51+2.16vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara-0.40+8.62vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+0.55vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.00+4.76vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-2.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.43+0.78vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+0.64vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+2.08vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83+3.65vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.03+3.33vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.15+2.96vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-3.07vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.58-1.48vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.91-0.86vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.66+1.22vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.43-0.92vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.56-1.33vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-2.03-0.56vs Predicted
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21University of California at Berkeley-2.41-0.58vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-1.34-5.31vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-15.66vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.49-6.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.1%1st Place
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6.07California Poly Maritime Academy1.209.4%1st Place
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5.16University of California at Santa Barbara1.5112.0%1st Place
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12.62University of California at Santa Barbara-0.402.5%1st Place
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5.55University of California at Santa Barbara1.3512.3%1st Place
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10.76University of California at San Diego0.003.0%1st Place
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4.87California Poly Maritime Academy1.6214.5%1st Place
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8.78University of California at Los Angeles0.435.0%1st Place
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9.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.263.6%1st Place
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12.08University of California at Santa Cruz-0.292.3%1st Place
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14.65University of California at Santa Cruz-0.831.6%1st Place
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15.33University of California at Los Angeles-1.031.1%1st Place
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15.96Arizona State University-1.151.1%1st Place
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10.93University of California at Los Angeles-0.033.1%1st Place
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13.52University of California at San Diego-0.581.4%1st Place
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15.14University of California at Davis-0.911.6%1st Place
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18.22University of California at San Diego-1.660.7%1st Place
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17.08University of California at Los Angeles-1.430.4%1st Place
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17.67University of California at San Diego-1.560.8%1st Place
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19.44University of California at Davis-2.030.2%1st Place
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20.42University of California at Berkeley-2.410.4%1st Place
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16.69California State University Channel Islands-1.340.3%1st Place
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7.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.836.9%1st Place
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17.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.490.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 15.1% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Schimmel | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katelon Egan | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Reid | 12.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Bastuba | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Clay Myers | 14.5% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noam Elroi | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| samson grunwald | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Riley Glascoe | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| David Spector | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lipps | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Kamille Romero | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Stephen Burt | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.8% |
| Christopher Milan | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% |
| Yasminna Sanchez | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 8.9% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 19.1% |
| John Cornet | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 15.5% | 33.7% |
| Joseph Silveira | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Carrion | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.