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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.18+5.38vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.80+1.88vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.52+2.08vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College-0.52+6.44vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.79-0.86vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+1.16vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16-0.21vs Predicted
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8Princeton University-0.97+4.29vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.44-1.19vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.35-0.01vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-4.43vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92-5.61vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.85vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.96vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.38U. S. Naval Academy1.187.5%1st Place
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3.88Georgetown University1.8019.9%1st Place
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5.08Old Dominion University1.5212.2%1st Place
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10.44SUNY Maritime College-0.521.9%1st Place
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4.14Cornell University1.7916.7%1st Place
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7.16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.0%1st Place
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6.79University of Pennsylvania1.167.4%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University-0.970.9%1st Place
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7.81Columbia University0.444.2%1st Place
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9.99Fordham University-0.352.2%1st Place
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6.57George Washington University1.077.6%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.927.5%1st Place
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9.15Christopher Newport University-0.843.2%1st Place
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10.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.2%1st Place
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13.87Washington College-2.270.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Emily Doble | 19.9% | 17.9% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 12.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 13.8% | 5.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 16.7% | 16.2% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 30.6% | 20.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 3.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 1.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 4.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 15.1% | 63.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.