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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+3.38vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.70+3.00vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.88+1.58vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.07-0.20vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55+0.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.94+0.99vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.41+1.40vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.23+0.81vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.58+2.22vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.29-1.38vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+0.46vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.98-5.33vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.01-3.57vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.00-2.01vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.89-1.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.8515.2%1st Place
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5.0University of Hawaii1.7010.4%1st Place
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4.58Stanford University1.8813.4%1st Place
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3.8California Poly Maritime Academy2.0720.5%1st Place
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5.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5511.6%1st Place
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6.99University of California at Los Angeles0.946.0%1st Place
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8.4University of California at San Diego0.413.5%1st Place
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8.81Western Washington University0.232.7%1st Place
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11.22University of California at Davis-0.581.4%1st Place
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8.62San Diego State University0.293.5%1st Place
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11.46University of California at Santa Cruz-0.691.1%1st Place
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6.67University of California at Berkeley0.986.6%1st Place
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9.43University of Southern California-0.012.8%1st Place
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11.99Arizona State University-1.000.9%1st Place
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13.55California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 15.2% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 10.4% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Berta Puig | 13.4% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 20.5% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Jonah Brees | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 18.2% | 10.7% |
| Ian Collignon | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Marcus Leitner | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 17.9% | 19.8% | 11.8% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Eleanor Desai | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 2.4% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 24.2% | 18.4% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 17.5% | 53.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.