← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+3.31vs Predicted
-
2California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+1.76vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University1.88+1.56vs Predicted
-
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55+1.09vs Predicted
-
5Western Washington University0.23+3.76vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Los Angeles0.94+0.89vs Predicted
-
7University of Hawaii1.70-1.93vs Predicted
-
8San Diego State University0.29+0.51vs Predicted
-
9University of California at San Diego0.41-0.66vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Davis-0.58+1.48vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+0.33vs Predicted
-
12University of Southern California-0.01-2.45vs Predicted
-
13Arizona State University-1.00-1.06vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Berkeley0.98-7.21vs Predicted
-
15California State University Channel Islands-1.89-1.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.31University of California at Santa Barbara1.8515.4%1st Place
-
3.76California Poly Maritime Academy2.0719.9%1st Place
-
4.56Stanford University1.8813.5%1st Place
-
5.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5512.0%1st Place
-
8.76Western Washington University0.233.5%1st Place
-
6.89University of California at Los Angeles0.945.6%1st Place
-
5.07University of Hawaii1.7010.6%1st Place
-
8.51San Diego State University0.293.8%1st Place
-
8.34University of California at San Diego0.414.0%1st Place
-
11.48University of California at Davis-0.580.9%1st Place
-
11.33University of California at Santa Cruz-0.690.7%1st Place
-
9.55University of Southern California-0.012.6%1st Place
-
11.94Arizona State University-1.000.6%1st Place
-
6.79University of California at Berkeley0.986.5%1st Place
-
13.6California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 15.4% | 15.4% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 19.9% | 17.6% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Berta Puig | 13.5% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 1.1% |
| Drew Wolf | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Owen Lahr | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Collignon | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Vivin Vinil | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Jonah Brees | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 17.9% | 19.6% | 11.2% |
| Marcus Leitner | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 16.4% | 20.1% | 9.8% |
| Eleanor Desai | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 2.2% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 22.9% | 17.5% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 56.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.