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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+3.52vs Predicted
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2Stanford University1.88+2.45vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55+2.08vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.07-0.28vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.23+3.76vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University0.29+2.65vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.70-2.11vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.41+0.44vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.98-2.22vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+1.39vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.58+0.25vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California-0.01-2.43vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.94-6.09vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.43vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.00-2.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.8512.2%1st Place
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4.45Stanford University1.8814.4%1st Place
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5.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5511.8%1st Place
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3.72California Poly Maritime Academy2.0720.8%1st Place
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8.76Western Washington University0.233.4%1st Place
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8.65San Diego State University0.293.4%1st Place
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4.89University of Hawaii1.7012.9%1st Place
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8.44University of California at San Diego0.413.7%1st Place
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6.78University of California at Berkeley0.986.2%1st Place
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11.39University of California at Santa Cruz-0.691.4%1st Place
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11.25University of California at Davis-0.581.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Southern California-0.012.5%1st Place
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6.91University of California at Los Angeles0.945.0%1st Place
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13.57California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
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12.01Arizona State University-1.001.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 12.2% | 15.5% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Berta Puig | 14.4% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 20.8% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Ian Collignon | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Owen Lahr | 12.9% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Marcus Leitner | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 18.4% | 20.0% | 11.6% |
| Jonah Brees | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 17.1% | 19.1% | 10.2% |
| Eleanor Desai | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 6.8% | 2.5% |
| Drew Wolf | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 56.5% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 25.2% | 16.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.