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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Western Washington University0.23+7.72vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+1.76vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55+2.14vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+0.42vs Predicted
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5Stanford University1.88-0.45vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University0.29+2.73vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.94-0.10vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69+3.27vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.70-4.04vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.41-1.73vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.58+0.19vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California-0.01-2.43vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.00-0.93vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.41vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.98-8.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.72Western Washington University0.233.6%1st Place
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3.76California Poly Maritime Academy2.0719.7%1st Place
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5.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5512.3%1st Place
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4.42University of California at Santa Barbara1.8514.8%1st Place
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4.55Stanford University1.8814.1%1st Place
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8.73San Diego State University0.293.0%1st Place
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6.9University of California at Los Angeles0.946.2%1st Place
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11.27University of California at Santa Cruz-0.691.2%1st Place
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4.96University of Hawaii1.7011.8%1st Place
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8.27University of California at San Diego0.414.0%1st Place
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11.19University of California at Davis-0.581.2%1st Place
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9.57University of Southern California-0.012.2%1st Place
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12.07Arizona State University-1.000.7%1st Place
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13.59California State University Channel Islands-1.890.1%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Berkeley0.985.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kira Blumhagen | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
Kyle Collins | 19.7% | 18.3% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Sean Ross | 12.3% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Lukas Kraak | 14.8% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Berta Puig | 14.1% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Ian Collignon | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
Drew Wolf | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Marcus Leitner | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 18.7% | 10.7% |
Owen Lahr | 11.8% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Vivin Vinil | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
Jonah Brees | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 18.6% | 9.8% |
Eleanor Desai | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
Antoine Kepczyk | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 25.3% | 17.4% |
Michael Boyd | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 56.5% |
Nate Ingebritson | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.