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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Western Washington University0.23+7.86vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+1.86vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.88+1.59vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+0.43vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.70-0.07vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.94+0.85vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.08vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55-2.86vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.52-0.89vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.29-1.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.58+0.39vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69-0.84vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.01-3.37vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.00-2.05vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.89-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.86Western Washington University0.232.9%1st Place
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3.86California Poly Maritime Academy2.0719.2%1st Place
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4.59Stanford University1.8814.5%1st Place
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4.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.8515.2%1st Place
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4.93University of Hawaii1.7012.7%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Los Angeles0.945.4%1st Place
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6.92University of California at Berkeley0.985.8%1st Place
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5.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5511.1%1st Place
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8.11University of California at San Diego0.523.5%1st Place
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8.54San Diego State University0.293.4%1st Place
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11.39University of California at Davis-0.581.2%1st Place
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11.16University of California at Santa Cruz-0.691.4%1st Place
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9.63University of Southern California-0.012.3%1st Place
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11.95Arizona State University-1.001.1%1st Place
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13.65California State University Channel Islands-1.890.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kira Blumhagen | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Collins | 19.2% | 17.6% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Berta Puig | 14.5% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 15.2% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 12.7% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sean Ross | 11.1% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Alexander | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Ian Collignon | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Jonah Brees | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 18.4% | 18.6% | 10.5% |
| Marcus Leitner | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 17.3% | 19.2% | 9.7% |
| Eleanor Desai | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 25.4% | 17.0% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 57.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.