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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.80+3.01vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+5.18vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.07+3.67vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92+2.25vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.52+0.08vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.18+0.30vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16-0.18vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.52+2.32vs Predicted
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9Fordham University-0.35+1.01vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.79-5.92vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.78vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-0.90vs Predicted
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14Washington College-2.27-0.12vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.44-7.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01Georgetown University1.8017.4%1st Place
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7.18St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.7%1st Place
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6.67George Washington University1.077.1%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.927.9%1st Place
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5.08Old Dominion University1.5212.2%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Naval Academy1.188.7%1st Place
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6.82University of Pennsylvania1.166.9%1st Place
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10.32SUNY Maritime College-0.521.9%1st Place
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10.01Fordham University-0.352.5%1st Place
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4.08Cornell University1.7917.6%1st Place
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9.2Christopher Newport University-0.842.8%1st Place
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10.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.8%1st Place
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12.1Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
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13.88Washington College-2.270.4%1st Place
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7.87Columbia University0.444.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Doble | 17.4% | 17.7% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 5.7% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 4.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 17.6% | 17.0% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 3.9% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 30.6% | 17.9% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 14.1% | 65.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.