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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+3.50vs Predicted
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2Stanford University1.88+2.56vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.23+5.75vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.70+0.88vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.55+0.17vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy2.07-2.18vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.52+0.13vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.94-2.06vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.29-1.32vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.58+0.38vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.69-0.60vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.01-3.54vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.00-1.96vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.89-1.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.8513.4%1st Place
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4.56Stanford University1.8814.1%1st Place
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8.75Western Washington University0.233.6%1st Place
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4.88University of Hawaii1.7012.5%1st Place
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5.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.5510.9%1st Place
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3.82California Poly Maritime Academy2.0720.6%1st Place
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6.69University of California at Berkeley0.986.7%1st Place
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8.13University of California at San Diego0.523.8%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Los Angeles0.945.5%1st Place
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8.68San Diego State University0.293.1%1st Place
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11.38University of California at Davis-0.581.1%1st Place
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11.4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.691.0%1st Place
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9.46University of Southern California-0.012.2%1st Place
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12.04Arizona State University-1.001.1%1st Place
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13.6California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 13.4% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Berta Puig | 14.1% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Owen Lahr | 12.5% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Ross | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 20.6% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John Alexander | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Drew Wolf | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ian Collignon | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Jonah Brees | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 18.9% | 18.2% | 11.3% |
| Marcus Leitner | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 17.0% | 19.4% | 11.9% |
| Eleanor Desai | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 2.4% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 24.6% | 17.7% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 17.5% | 54.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.