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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.72+4.35vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+1.41vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+3.17vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine1.35+2.54vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.39+1.52vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands0.50+4.03vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.78+1.59vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.75+0.70vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.31+1.48vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.11+6.03vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.49-1.23vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.50-1.97vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.54+1.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.02+2.03vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands0.50-4.97vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.82-0.82vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara-0.07-5.00vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.78-3.01vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.59-4.76vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-0.54-5.60vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.73-2.92vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-0.54-7.76vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-0.05-10.92vs Predicted
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24University of Southern California0.85-15.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.1%1st Place
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3.41University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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6.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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6.54University of California at Irvine1.350.1%1st Place
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6.52University of California at Los Angeles1.390.1%1st Place
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10.03California State University Channel Islands0.500.0%1st Place
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8.59University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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8.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.750.1%1st Place
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10.48University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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16.03Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.77University of California at San Diego0.490.0%1st Place
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10.03California State University Channel Islands0.500.0%1st Place
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14.24University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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16.03University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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10.03California State University Channel Islands0.500.0%1st Place
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15.18University of California at Los Angeles-0.820.0%1st Place
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12.0University of California at Santa Barbara-0.070.0%1st Place
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14.99University of California at Los Angeles-0.780.0%1st Place
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14.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.590.0%1st Place
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14.4University of California at Irvine-0.540.0%1st Place
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18.08University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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14.24University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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12.08University of California at San Diego-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.16University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Rickon | 13.4% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 25.0% | 19.6% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 7.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Hays | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Clarke | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Bultema | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph McArdle | 3.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Clarke | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Barr | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Clarke | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Chao | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Helm | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Alcorn | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin McAlister | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Diaz | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 37.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Barr | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sams | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.