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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.18+5.37vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+5.04vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.52+2.11vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.16+2.72vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.07+1.65vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.80-2.17vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.79-2.90vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.44-0.12vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.92-2.59vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.35+0.08vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.98vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.52-2.48vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-1.77vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.27-1.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37U. S. Naval Academy1.187.8%1st Place
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7.04St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.8%1st Place
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5.11Old Dominion University1.5211.1%1st Place
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6.72University of Pennsylvania1.167.4%1st Place
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6.65George Washington University1.077.4%1st Place
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3.83Georgetown University1.8019.2%1st Place
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4.1Cornell University1.7917.6%1st Place
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7.88Columbia University0.445.1%1st Place
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6.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.927.5%1st Place
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10.08Fordham University-0.352.3%1st Place
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9.2Christopher Newport University-0.842.9%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.1%1st Place
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10.52SUNY Maritime College-0.521.9%1st Place
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12.23Princeton University-0.971.1%1st Place
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13.83Washington College-2.270.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Marina Conde | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Emily Doble | 19.2% | 18.9% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 17.6% | 15.2% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 3.8% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 1.9% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 4.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 13.6% | 5.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 30.8% | 20.0% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 15.3% | 63.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.