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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands0.50+10.20vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.72+4.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine1.71+3.35vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego1.60+2.59vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+2.17vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.49+5.20vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.78+2.67vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.85+1.70vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.36+5.89vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-2.79vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.47-7.23vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.39-4.76vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.05+0.56vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.54+1.91vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-0.07-1.10vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.05-2.63vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University0.04-3.78vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands0.50-6.80vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-0.78-2.56vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-1.02-2.75vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-0.64-4.87vs Predicted
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22University of California at Irvine-0.54-6.54vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles-0.82-6.38vs Predicted
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24California State University Channel Islands0.50-12.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.2California State University Channel Islands0.500.0%1st Place
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6.15University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.1%1st Place
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6.35University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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6.59University of California at San Diego1.600.1%1st Place
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7.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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11.2University of California at San Diego0.490.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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9.7University of Southern California0.850.1%1st Place
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14.89University of California at San Diego-0.360.0%1st Place
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7.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.1%1st Place
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3.77University of Southern California2.470.2%1st Place
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7.24University of California at Los Angeles1.390.1%1st Place
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13.56University of California at San Diego-0.050.0%1st Place
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15.91University of California at San Diego-0.540.0%1st Place
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13.9University of California at Santa Barbara-0.070.0%1st Place
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13.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.050.0%1st Place
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13.22Arizona State University0.040.0%1st Place
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11.2California State University Channel Islands0.500.0%1st Place
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16.44University of California at Los Angeles-0.780.0%1st Place
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17.25University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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16.13University of California at San Diego-0.640.0%1st Place
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15.46University of California at Irvine-0.540.0%1st Place
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16.62University of California at Los Angeles-0.820.0%1st Place
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11.2California State University Channel Islands0.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Clarke | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Rickon | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph McArdle | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollis Barth | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nils-Erik Rundquist | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 22.7% | 19.4% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Hays | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danielle Sams | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Barr | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Helm | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Mintz | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle McManus | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Clarke | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Alcorn | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 20.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Sinclair | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Diaz | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Chao | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Clarke | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.