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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.20+5.09vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.59+2.80vs Predicted
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3Florida State University1.69+1.66vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island0.34+4.47vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.30-0.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+0.30vs Predicted
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7University of Minnesota-0.49+3.86vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.59-1.43vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.31vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University0.97-1.01vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.56-3.69vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.18-6.11vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire0.10-4.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.09Connecticut College1.208.8%1st Place
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4.8Tufts University1.5914.0%1st Place
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4.66Florida State University1.6914.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Rhode Island0.344.0%1st Place
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4.69Webb Institute1.3014.5%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.078.2%1st Place
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10.86University of Minnesota-0.491.6%1st Place
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6.57Northeastern University1.597.0%1st Place
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7.69SUNY Maritime College0.505.7%1st Place
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8.99Salve Regina University0.973.3%1st Place
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7.31University of Vermont0.565.7%1st Place
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5.89Roger Williams University1.189.5%1st Place
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8.69University of New Hampshire0.103.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skylor Sweet | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Gus Macaulay | 14.0% | 14.3% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Foley | 14.1% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Pierson Falk | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 10.9% |
| Everett Botwinick | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| David Vinogradov | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Tiernan O'Kane | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 16.8% | 45.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 5.5% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 17.3% | 14.4% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 4.0% |
| Jack Crager | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Sam Harris | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.