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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.23+2.01vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.92+1.56vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.92+0.58vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.23+1.03vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+0.31vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.71+0.13vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.82+1.03vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.52-1.46vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-0.38vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.11vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.50-2.31vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-2.29+0.11vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.90-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.01Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
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3.56Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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3.58Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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5.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.230.1%1st Place
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5.31University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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6.13University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
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8.03University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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6.54University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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8.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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7.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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8.69California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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12.11University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
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12.52University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly McKinney | 25.8% | 20.8% | 17.8% | 15.8% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 18.4% | 19.1% | 18.3% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 18.7% | 19.4% | 16.7% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keenan Chung | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 17.8% | 16.7% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 18.9% | 25.8% | 4.1% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 15.2% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Christina Stege | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 20.1% | 22.8% | 4.7% | 0.2% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 5.7% | 55.1% | 34.7% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 30.4% | 64.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.