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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+4.40vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.23+1.02vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.92+0.59vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.82+4.18vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.92-1.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.23-1.05vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.71-0.93vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.52-1.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-0.40vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.50-1.30vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.21vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-2.29+0.11vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.90-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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3.02Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
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3.59Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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8.18University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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3.54Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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4.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.230.1%1st Place
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6.07University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
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6.52University of Southern California1.520.1%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.7California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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7.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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12.11University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
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12.52University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 26.2% | 21.1% | 19.2% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 17.2% | 18.8% | 18.1% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 16.8% | 17.9% | 18.4% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 19.8% | 18.5% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Keenan Chung | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 19.8% | 23.8% | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| Christina Stege | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 18.8% | 27.0% | 4.3% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 17.6% | 12.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 55.7% | 34.7% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 30.7% | 64.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.