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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.92+2.53vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.92+1.49vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.30vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.23-1.07vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.23-0.24vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.71-0.10vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+1.10vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.52-1.72vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-1.36vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.82-2.22vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-2.29+0.82vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-1.49-0.89vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.90-0.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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3.49Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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5.3University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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2.93Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
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4.76University of California at Santa Barbara2.230.1%1st Place
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5.9University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
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8.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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6.28University of Southern California1.520.1%1st Place
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7.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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11.82University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
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11.11California State University Monterey Bay-1.490.0%1st Place
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12.37University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Buckstaff | 19.6% | 16.9% | 17.5% | 15.6% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 18.7% | 19.5% | 18.0% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 26.5% | 21.4% | 18.8% | 15.2% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keenan Chung | 11.0% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 19.9% | 26.0% | 9.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 17.4% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 19.9% | 19.7% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Erica Parker | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 23.0% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 23.0% | 41.7% | 28.2% |
| Jacob Garcia | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 43.2% | 31.3% | 9.7% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 10.3% | 23.6% | 62.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.