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📊 Prediction Accuracy
84.6%
Within 2 Positions
0.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.92+2.56vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.23+1.00vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.92+0.59vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.23+1.03vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+0.34vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.71+0.07vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.52-0.48vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.82+0.07vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-1.02vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-1.46vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.50-2.35vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-2.29+0.11vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.90-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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3.0Stanford University3.230.2%1st Place
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3.59Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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5.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.230.1%1st Place
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5.34University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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6.07University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
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6.52University of Southern California1.520.1%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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7.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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8.54University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.65California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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12.11University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
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12.52University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Buckstaff | 19.9% | 16.9% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 25.0% | 23.8% | 17.8% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 17.9% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keenan Chung | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 16.6% | 17.0% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 17.9% | 16.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 25.3% | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| Christina Stege | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 19.9% | 23.0% | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 56.1% | 34.7% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 30.8% | 64.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.