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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.92+2.54vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.23+0.99vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.23+2.05vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.42vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.52+1.54vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.71+0.09vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.92-3.51vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.50+0.75vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-0.39vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.82-1.88vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.25vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-2.29+0.11vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.90-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.54Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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2.99Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
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5.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.230.1%1st Place
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5.42University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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6.54University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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6.09University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
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3.49Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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8.75California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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8.61University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.12University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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7.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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12.11University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
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12.52University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maeve White | 18.7% | 19.4% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 26.3% | 22.2% | 17.0% | 14.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keenan Chung | 7.9% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 20.4% | 17.5% | 17.2% | 16.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 20.5% | 26.8% | 3.7% | 0.3% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 19.7% | 24.5% | 4.3% | 0.1% |
| Erica Parker | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 16.7% | 17.1% | 17.3% | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 55.6% | 34.7% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 30.8% | 64.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.