← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.23+1.85vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Los Angeles0.82+5.64vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+2.08vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University2.92-0.60vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+2.98vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley1.71-0.31vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-0.75vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California1.52-1.85vs Predicted
-
9Stanford University2.92-5.66vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.62vs Predicted
-
11California State University Monterey Bay-1.49+0.02vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-2.29-0.14vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Davis-2.90-0.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.85Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
-
7.64University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
-
5.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
-
3.4Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
-
7.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
-
5.69University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
-
6.25University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
-
6.15University of Southern California1.520.1%1st Place
-
3.34Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
-
7.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
-
11.02California State University Monterey Bay-1.490.0%1st Place
-
11.86University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
-
12.36University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly McKinney | 26.7% | 24.0% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 22.4% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Ginger Luckey | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 19.8% | 18.3% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 23.8% | 10.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 19.2% | 21.7% | 17.6% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 19.4% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Garcia | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 47.1% | 27.7% | 8.0% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 18.4% | 42.7% | 31.4% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 10.7% | 25.3% | 60.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.