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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+5.16vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.59+4.56vs Predicted
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3Florida State University1.69+1.70vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.18+1.91vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.50+2.59vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University0.97+2.98vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.20-0.84vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.30-3.26vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.56-1.69vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.59-5.18vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.34-2.59vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire0.10-3.28vs Predicted
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13University of Minnesota-0.49-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.078.6%1st Place
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6.56Northeastern University1.597.4%1st Place
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4.7Florida State University1.6914.2%1st Place
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5.91Roger Williams University1.189.6%1st Place
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7.59SUNY Maritime College0.504.8%1st Place
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8.98Salve Regina University0.973.4%1st Place
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6.16Connecticut College1.208.0%1st Place
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4.74Webb Institute1.3014.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Vermont0.565.8%1st Place
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4.82Tufts University1.5914.8%1st Place
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8.41University of Rhode Island0.344.3%1st Place
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8.72University of New Hampshire0.103.6%1st Place
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10.95University of Minnesota-0.491.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Vinogradov | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Peter Foley | 14.2% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jack Crager | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 5.9% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 13.2% |
| Skylor Sweet | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 14.1% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Gus Macaulay | 14.8% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Pierson Falk | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 10.3% |
| Sam Harris | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 12.3% |
| Tiernan O'Kane | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 16.0% | 48.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.