← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+4.12vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University3.23+0.84vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University2.92+0.35vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University2.92-0.64vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Los Angeles0.82+2.56vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley1.71-0.31vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-0.74vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+0.01vs Predicted
-
9University of Southern California1.52-2.78vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.64vs Predicted
-
11California State University Monterey Bay-1.49+0.01vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-2.29-0.13vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Davis-2.90-0.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.12University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
-
2.84Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
-
3.35Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
-
3.36Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
-
7.56University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
-
5.69University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
-
6.26University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
-
8.01University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
-
6.22University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
-
7.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
-
11.01California State University Monterey Bay-1.490.0%1st Place
-
11.87University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
-
12.37University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 8.4% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 27.0% | 25.4% | 17.3% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 19.5% | 21.4% | 17.1% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 19.6% | 19.0% | 20.0% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 21.1% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 6.4% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 19.1% | 26.1% | 7.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 19.6% | 15.8% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Garcia | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 8.1% | 46.8% | 27.8% | 8.0% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 18.3% | 43.0% | 31.4% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 10.8% | 25.3% | 60.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.