← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.23+1.88vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University2.92+1.38vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Berkeley1.71+3.05vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California1.52+2.45vs Predicted
-
5Stanford University2.92-1.61vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Cruz0.61+2.42vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Los Angeles0.82+0.92vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-2.93vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-2.41vs Predicted
-
10California State University Monterey Bay0.50-1.37vs Predicted
-
11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.41vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Davis-2.90+0.54vs Predicted
-
13University of California at San Diego-2.29-0.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.88Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
-
3.38Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
-
6.05University of California at Berkeley1.710.0%1st Place
-
6.45University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
-
3.39Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
-
8.42University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
-
7.92University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
-
5.07University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
-
6.59University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.0%1st Place
-
8.63California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
-
7.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
-
12.54University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
-
12.09University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly McKinney | 28.1% | 21.1% | 18.9% | 13.9% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 20.3% | 20.1% | 18.3% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 20.2% | 20.7% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 17.7% | 23.2% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Erica Parker | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 17.7% | 17.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Ginger Luckey | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 14.6% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 17.5% | 27.0% | 4.0% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 29.5% | 66.0% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 57.8% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.