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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+4.21vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.23+0.89vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.92+0.41vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.82+4.04vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.92-1.60vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.52+0.37vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.71-1.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-1.53vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.61-0.53vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.50-1.40vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-3.37vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-2.90+0.53vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-2.29-0.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.21University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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2.89Stanford University3.230.3%1st Place
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3.41Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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8.04University of California at Los Angeles0.820.0%1st Place
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3.4Stanford University2.920.2%1st Place
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6.37University of Southern California1.520.1%1st Place
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5.87University of California at Berkeley1.710.1%1st Place
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6.47University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.0%1st Place
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8.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.610.0%1st Place
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8.6California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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7.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.0%1st Place
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12.53University of California at Davis-2.900.0%1st Place
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12.1University of California at San Diego-2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginger Luckey | 7.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 27.9% | 21.9% | 19.2% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 19.0% | 20.0% | 18.9% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erica Parker | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Maeve White | 20.7% | 19.0% | 17.0% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mike McCarthy | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 18.6% | 22.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Lausten | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Stowell | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 29.1% | 66.2% |
| Elsa Felgar | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 57.5% | 33.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.