← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bates College-0.70+18.32vs Predicted
-
2Yale University2.71+4.02vs Predicted
-
3University of South Florida1.60+7.69vs Predicted
-
4Dartmouth College2.38+3.24vs Predicted
-
5Bowdoin College2.38+1.68vs Predicted
-
6Harvard University2.10+2.26vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University1.67+2.71vs Predicted
-
8University of Rhode Island2.78-2.26vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College0.38+7.22vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University1.94-0.95vs Predicted
-
11Tufts University1.43+0.44vs Predicted
-
12University of Vermont0.87+2.00vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-3.12vs Predicted
-
14Northeastern University1.07-1.26vs Predicted
-
15Boston University1.39-3.83vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan1.29-3.74vs Predicted
-
17Salve Regina University0.46-1.38vs Predicted
-
18Brown University1.55-6.79vs Predicted
-
19Brown University1.86-9.83vs Predicted
-
20U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-7.00vs Predicted
-
21Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-3.57vs Predicted
-
22Dartmouth College0.33-5.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
19.32Bates College-0.700.4%1st Place
-
6.02Yale University2.7111.3%1st Place
-
10.69University of South Florida1.603.9%1st Place
-
7.24Dartmouth College2.388.9%1st Place
-
6.68Bowdoin College2.3810.0%1st Place
-
8.26Harvard University2.107.8%1st Place
-
9.71Tufts University1.674.8%1st Place
-
5.74University of Rhode Island2.7812.0%1st Place
-
16.22Connecticut College0.381.2%1st Place
-
9.05Roger Williams University1.945.9%1st Place
-
11.44Tufts University1.433.8%1st Place
-
14.0University of Vermont0.871.6%1st Place
-
9.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.9%1st Place
-
12.74Northeastern University1.072.8%1st Place
-
11.17Boston University1.393.3%1st Place
-
12.26University of Michigan1.293.4%1st Place
-
15.62Salve Regina University0.460.9%1st Place
-
11.21Brown University1.554.0%1st Place
-
9.17Brown University1.864.9%1st Place
-
13.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.092.4%1st Place
-
17.43Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.030.4%1st Place
-
16.13Dartmouth College0.331.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Green | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 45.8% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.3% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| William Michels | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 8.8% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jack Flores | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Billy Vogel | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Emil Tullberg | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 7.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Derry | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| Griffin Lapham | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.