← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+8.86vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College2.38+5.34vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University1.43+8.48vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College2.38+3.03vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University1.67+4.88vs Predicted
-
6Yale University2.71-0.06vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+5.75vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont0.87+6.24vs Predicted
-
9Brown University1.86+0.34vs Predicted
-
10Boston University1.39+1.34vs Predicted
-
11University of Rhode Island2.78-5.40vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University1.94-3.04vs Predicted
-
13Brown University1.55-2.35vs Predicted
-
14University of South Florida1.60-3.39vs Predicted
-
15Salve Regina University0.46+0.51vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan1.29-3.99vs Predicted
-
17Bates College-0.70+2.34vs Predicted
-
18Northeastern University1.07-5.25vs Predicted
-
19Dartmouth College0.33-2.71vs Predicted
-
20Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.03-2.47vs Predicted
-
21Connecticut College0.38-4.69vs Predicted
-
22Harvard University2.10-13.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.775.7%1st Place
-
7.34Dartmouth College2.388.6%1st Place
-
11.48Tufts University1.433.1%1st Place
-
7.03Bowdoin College2.389.6%1st Place
-
9.88Tufts University1.674.2%1st Place
-
5.94Yale University2.7111.8%1st Place
-
12.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.092.9%1st Place
-
14.24University of Vermont0.871.8%1st Place
-
9.34Brown University1.865.6%1st Place
-
11.34Boston University1.393.8%1st Place
-
5.6University of Rhode Island2.7812.4%1st Place
-
8.96Roger Williams University1.945.6%1st Place
-
10.65Brown University1.553.2%1st Place
-
10.61University of South Florida1.604.4%1st Place
-
15.51Salve Regina University0.461.0%1st Place
-
12.01University of Michigan1.293.8%1st Place
-
19.34Bates College-0.700.6%1st Place
-
12.75Northeastern University1.072.6%1st Place
-
16.29Dartmouth College0.331.2%1st Place
-
17.53Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.030.8%1st Place
-
16.31Connecticut College0.381.0%1st Place
-
8.25Harvard University2.106.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Schmelz | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| William Michels | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Flores | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Derry | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 7.0% |
| Billy Vogel | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Colby Green | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 15.4% | 46.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Griffin Lapham | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 10.0% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 14.3% | 9.7% |
| Cordelia Burn | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.