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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+6.06vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.97+9.67vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.18+3.52vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.22+2.38vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.05+6.18vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.03+5.68vs Predicted
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7Brown University0.79+6.09vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.18+2.77vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-0.34vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College1.95-1.93vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.97+1.36vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.49-2.54vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.80-4.93vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.83-1.27vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-3.28vs Predicted
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16Harvard University0.70-1.96vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.85-4.48vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.36-0.46vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University1.59-9.60vs Predicted
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20University of South Florida0.39-5.05vs Predicted
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21Bates College-1.55-0.64vs Predicted
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22Dartmouth College0.36-7.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Bowdoin College2.0610.2%1st Place
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11.67Boston University0.973.2%1st Place
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6.52Yale University2.1810.4%1st Place
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6.38Brown University2.2210.9%1st Place
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11.18University of Vermont1.054.0%1st Place
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11.68Roger Williams University1.033.4%1st Place
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13.09Brown University0.792.9%1st Place
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10.77Tufts University1.184.9%1st Place
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8.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.9%1st Place
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8.07Dartmouth College1.956.8%1st Place
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12.36Salve Regina University0.972.6%1st Place
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9.46Northwestern University1.495.7%1st Place
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8.07University of Rhode Island1.807.0%1st Place
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12.73Connecticut College0.833.2%1st Place
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11.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.8%1st Place
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14.04Harvard University0.702.3%1st Place
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12.52University of Michigan0.852.8%1st Place
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17.54Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.360.9%1st Place
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9.4Northeastern University1.595.5%1st Place
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14.95University of South Florida0.391.8%1st Place
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20.36Bates College-1.550.2%1st Place
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14.78Dartmouth College0.361.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Emmett Nevel | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Shea Smith | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Will Glasson | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 3.4% |
| Emily Pytell | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 25.9% | 15.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hella Kornatzki | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 3.5% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 11.7% | 66.3% |
| Connor Vogel | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.