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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.18+5.57vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.18+9.08vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.06+4.20vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.97+8.06vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.05+6.29vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+0.33vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.95+0.73vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.03+3.81vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.83+3.67vs Predicted
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10Harvard University0.70+3.71vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida0.39+3.64vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.80-3.75vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University0.97-0.52vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-4.73vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-6.49vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.85-3.47vs Predicted
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17Brown University0.79-4.12vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College0.36-3.35vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.36-1.51vs Predicted
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20Bates College-1.55+0.53vs Predicted
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21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-8.91vs Predicted
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22Northwestern University1.49-12.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.57Yale University2.1812.0%1st Place
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11.08Tufts University1.184.0%1st Place
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7.2Bowdoin College2.067.8%1st Place
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12.06Boston University0.972.4%1st Place
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11.29University of Vermont1.053.6%1st Place
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6.33Brown University2.2211.0%1st Place
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7.73Dartmouth College1.957.8%1st Place
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11.81Roger Williams University1.033.0%1st Place
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12.67Connecticut College0.833.1%1st Place
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13.71Harvard University0.702.5%1st Place
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14.64University of South Florida0.391.9%1st Place
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8.25University of Rhode Island1.806.6%1st Place
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12.48Salve Regina University0.972.7%1st Place
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9.27Northeastern University1.596.0%1st Place
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8.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.6%1st Place
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12.53University of Michigan0.852.8%1st Place
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12.88Brown University0.792.6%1st Place
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14.65Dartmouth College0.362.1%1st Place
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17.49Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.361.0%1st Place
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20.53Bates College-1.550.2%1st Place
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12.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.0%1st Place
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9.25Northwestern University1.496.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Farina | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Mason Stang | 11.0% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Nevel | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Will Glasson | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2.2% |
| Hella Kornatzki | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 4.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emily Pytell | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 1.5% |
| Connor Vogel | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 25.6% | 15.8% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 11.8% | 67.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Shea Smith | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.