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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+6.31vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.90+5.83vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.22+3.51vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.97+7.92vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.05+6.16vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.95+2.02vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.18+4.12vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.59+1.44vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49+0.45vs Predicted
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10Brown University0.79+3.03vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.85+1.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+0.01vs Predicted
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13Harvard University0.70+0.99vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.03-2.13vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.80-6.76vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.36+1.77vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-8.27vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.19-6.98vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.83-6.06vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College0.36-5.01vs Predicted
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21Salve Regina University0.97-8.70vs Predicted
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22Bates College-1.55-1.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.31Bowdoin College2.069.2%1st Place
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7.83Yale University1.908.2%1st Place
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6.51Brown University2.2211.0%1st Place
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11.92Boston University0.973.5%1st Place
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11.16University of Vermont1.054.6%1st Place
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8.02Dartmouth College1.957.4%1st Place
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11.12Tufts University1.183.6%1st Place
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9.44Northeastern University1.595.0%1st Place
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9.45Northwestern University1.496.0%1st Place
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13.03Brown University0.792.5%1st Place
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12.81University of Michigan0.852.6%1st Place
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12.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.8%1st Place
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13.99Harvard University0.702.4%1st Place
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11.87Roger Williams University1.033.4%1st Place
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8.24University of Rhode Island1.806.8%1st Place
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17.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.360.9%1st Place
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8.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.7%1st Place
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11.02University of South Florida1.194.0%1st Place
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12.94Connecticut College0.833.1%1st Place
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14.99Dartmouth College0.362.1%1st Place
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12.3Salve Regina University0.973.0%1st Place
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20.53Bates College-1.550.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Shea Smith | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Emily Pytell | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 2.0% |
| Emmett Nevel | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Declan Botwinick | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 26.8% | 18.2% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Will Glasson | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Connor Vogel | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 4.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 12.3% | 67.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.