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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+8.60vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.90+5.92vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.18+8.16vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.83+8.67vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan0.85+7.95vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63+2.74vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.97+4.99vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.80+0.10vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.03+2.83vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.06-2.83vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.95-2.90vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.05-0.78vs Predicted
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13Harvard University0.70+1.05vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-4.55vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.22-8.52vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.19-4.53vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-4.94vs Predicted
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18Brown University0.79-5.19vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.36-1.49vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College0.36-5.08vs Predicted
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21Bates College-1.55-0.50vs Predicted
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22Salve Regina University0.97-9.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.6Northwestern University1.495.7%1st Place
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7.92Yale University1.907.6%1st Place
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11.16Tufts University1.184.1%1st Place
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12.67Connecticut College0.832.8%1st Place
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12.95University of Michigan0.852.8%1st Place
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8.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.7%1st Place
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11.99Boston University0.973.5%1st Place
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8.1University of Rhode Island1.807.8%1st Place
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11.83Roger Williams University1.032.8%1st Place
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7.17Bowdoin College2.069.8%1st Place
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8.1Dartmouth College1.957.2%1st Place
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11.22University of Vermont1.054.2%1st Place
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14.05Harvard University0.702.4%1st Place
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9.45Northeastern University1.596.0%1st Place
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6.48Brown University2.2210.3%1st Place
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11.47University of South Florida1.194.3%1st Place
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12.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.4%1st Place
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12.81Brown University0.792.9%1st Place
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17.51Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.360.9%1st Place
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14.92Dartmouth College0.361.8%1st Place
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20.5Bates College-1.550.3%1st Place
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12.3Salve Regina University0.972.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Will Glasson | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Emily Pytell | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Declan Botwinick | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Nevel | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 2.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Helen Horangic | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Dreyer | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 26.6% | 17.3% |
| Connor Vogel | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 3.7% |
| Gray Dinsel | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 11.2% | 67.8% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.