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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island0.34+7.51vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.59+4.37vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+3.16vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.30+0.70vs Predicted
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5Florida State University1.69-0.44vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University0.97+3.10vs Predicted
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7University of Minnesota-0.49+3.85vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.59-3.03vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.18-3.11vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.50-2.21vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire0.10-2.29vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.20-5.90vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.56-5.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.51University of Rhode Island0.343.3%1st Place
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6.37Northeastern University1.598.1%1st Place
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6.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.079.3%1st Place
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4.7Webb Institute1.3015.0%1st Place
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4.56Florida State University1.6915.9%1st Place
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9.1Salve Regina University0.973.5%1st Place
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10.85University of Minnesota-0.491.1%1st Place
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4.97Tufts University1.5912.8%1st Place
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5.89Roger Williams University1.189.2%1st Place
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7.79SUNY Maritime College0.504.9%1st Place
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8.71University of New Hampshire0.103.9%1st Place
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6.1Connecticut College1.207.3%1st Place
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7.29University of Vermont0.565.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierson Falk | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 9.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 1.1% |
| David Vinogradov | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Everett Botwinick | 15.0% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Foley | 15.9% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| Tiernan O'Kane | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 46.1% |
| Gus Macaulay | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Jack Crager | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 5.7% |
| Sam Harris | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 12.5% |
| Skylor Sweet | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.