← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+7.40vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.09+5.86vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy3.01+2.39vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University2.05+4.09vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania1.59+4.38vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+0.47vs Predicted
-
7Princeton University1.87+3.90vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University1.81+0.49vs Predicted
-
9Cornell University1.70+0.15vs Predicted
-
10Webb Institute1.73-1.06vs Predicted
-
11William and Mary0.12+3.86vs Predicted
-
12Catholic University of America1.31-1.47vs Predicted
-
13Washington College1.66-2.92vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College2.51-7.38vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University0.83-1.55vs Predicted
-
16Hampton University1.47-5.34vs Predicted
-
17Virginia Tech0.72-4.89vs Predicted
-
18Fordham University1.57-8.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.466.6%1st Place
-
7.86Georgetown University2.097.8%1st Place
-
5.39U. S. Naval Academy3.0112.8%1st Place
-
8.09George Washington University2.056.4%1st Place
-
9.38University of Pennsylvania1.594.8%1st Place
-
6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.4%1st Place
-
10.9Princeton University1.873.4%1st Place
-
8.49Old Dominion University1.816.0%1st Place
-
9.15Cornell University1.704.7%1st Place
-
8.94Webb Institute1.735.6%1st Place
-
14.86William and Mary0.121.5%1st Place
-
10.53Catholic University of America1.313.8%1st Place
-
10.08Washington College1.664.2%1st Place
-
6.62SUNY Maritime College2.519.1%1st Place
-
13.45Christopher Newport University0.831.7%1st Place
-
10.66Hampton University1.473.2%1st Place
-
12.11Virginia Tech0.722.6%1st Place
-
9.62Fordham University1.575.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Edward Cook | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| JC Hermus | 12.8% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matt Logue | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 38.8% |
| John McKenna | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 21.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.