Race 11A

vietor

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Duncan Craine 8.6% 8.9% 7.7% 8.2% 10.4% 8.8% 10.0% 9.1% 7.8% 8.5% 6.4% 4.0% 1.6%
Adrian Winkelman 8.2% 9.0% 8.3% 9.2% 9.6% 8.7% 7.8% 8.5% 8.1% 8.6% 7.6% 4.5% 1.8%
Gus Macaulay 14.6% 13.2% 12.4% 11.2% 10.1% 10.1% 8.0% 7.6% 4.9% 3.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Olivia Lowthian 2.5% 2.6% 3.6% 4.0% 5.0% 5.1% 6.7% 7.6% 8.2% 9.8% 13.0% 16.7% 15.2%
Nathaniel Hartwell 5.1% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 7.0% 7.1% 7.5% 8.6% 10.0% 9.9% 10.7% 10.2% 5.8%
Everett Botwinick 13.3% 12.0% 13.7% 13.0% 11.0% 8.9% 8.0% 6.3% 5.6% 4.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Gavin Sanborn 5.9% 6.7% 6.2% 7.2% 6.6% 7.6% 8.5% 8.5% 10.0% 10.9% 8.6% 9.4% 3.9%
Pierson Falk 3.3% 4.5% 4.2% 5.1% 5.9% 6.2% 7.0% 7.8% 10.2% 11.1% 13.4% 13.1% 8.4%
Jack Crager 9.0% 9.8% 11.0% 10.3% 8.3% 10.0% 8.7% 9.2% 8.1% 6.4% 5.1% 2.7% 1.5%
Peter Foley 15.9% 14.1% 12.6% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 8.6% 7.1% 5.1% 3.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Tiernan O'Kane 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.6% 3.4% 5.1% 5.7% 9.2% 14.9% 47.9%
Sam Harris 3.8% 3.1% 3.9% 4.3% 5.6% 6.2% 6.1% 7.3% 8.8% 10.1% 12.7% 16.6% 11.5%
David Vinogradov 8.2% 8.5% 9.1% 8.9% 8.5% 8.9% 10.7% 8.9% 8.3% 7.5% 6.0% 4.7% 1.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.