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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.51+5.65vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.09+5.70vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.73+5.79vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.57+5.81vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+3.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.01-0.69vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-0.61vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.66+1.94vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.70-0.25vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.59-0.59vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.19-3.26vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.81-3.44vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.12+1.92vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.48-0.22vs Predicted
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15Catholic University of America1.31-4.41vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.87-5.14vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.47-6.60vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.73-4.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65SUNY Maritime College2.5110.1%1st Place
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7.7Georgetown University2.097.3%1st Place
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8.79Webb Institute1.735.5%1st Place
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9.81Fordham University1.574.8%1st Place
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8.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.466.2%1st Place
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5.31U. S. Naval Academy3.0114.4%1st Place
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6.39St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.8%1st Place
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9.94Washington College1.664.0%1st Place
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8.75Cornell University1.705.1%1st Place
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9.41University of Pennsylvania1.595.0%1st Place
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7.74George Washington University2.196.2%1st Place
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8.56Old Dominion University1.816.2%1st Place
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14.92William and Mary0.121.1%1st Place
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13.78Christopher Newport University0.481.5%1st Place
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10.59Catholic University of America1.313.7%1st Place
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10.86Princeton University1.873.1%1st Place
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10.4Hampton University1.473.6%1st Place
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13.24Virginia Tech0.731.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Edward Cook | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Jake Vickers | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| JC Hermus | 14.4% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 36.4% |
| David Grace | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 18.2% | 24.5% |
| John McKenna | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Aidan Young | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 16.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.