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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+7.10vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.73+6.73vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.51+3.76vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.48+9.74vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.59+4.41vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.70+2.90vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.66+2.85vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-1.47vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.01-3.74vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.81-1.39vs Predicted
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11William and Mary0.12+3.98vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.19-4.41vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.09-5.29vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.87-3.26vs Predicted
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15Catholic University of America1.31-4.41vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.57-6.16vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.73-3.84vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.47-7.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.466.1%1st Place
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8.73Webb Institute1.736.0%1st Place
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6.76SUNY Maritime College2.519.0%1st Place
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13.74Christopher Newport University0.481.2%1st Place
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9.41University of Pennsylvania1.594.7%1st Place
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8.9Cornell University1.705.5%1st Place
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9.85Washington College1.664.5%1st Place
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6.53St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.3%1st Place
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5.26U. S. Naval Academy3.0114.1%1st Place
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8.61Old Dominion University1.816.0%1st Place
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14.98William and Mary0.121.1%1st Place
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7.59George Washington University2.196.8%1st Place
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7.71Georgetown University2.097.5%1st Place
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10.74Princeton University1.873.6%1st Place
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10.59Catholic University of America1.313.6%1st Place
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9.84Fordham University1.574.5%1st Place
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13.16Virginia Tech0.731.8%1st Place
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10.5Hampton University1.473.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| David Grace | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 21.9% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| JC Hermus | 14.1% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 40.1% |
| Michael Ehnot | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Edward Cook | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| John McKenna | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Aidan Young | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 16.9% | 15.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.