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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.01+4.46vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.57+7.90vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.51+3.77vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.09+3.83vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.81+3.51vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+2.08vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+1.84vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-1.50vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.59+0.49vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.87+1.09vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.19-3.20vs Predicted
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12Catholic University of America1.31-1.54vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.70-4.02vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.66-4.14vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.47-4.58vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.12-0.98vs Predicted
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17Virginia Tech0.72-4.94vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.48-4.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46U. S. Naval Academy3.0112.6%1st Place
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9.9Fordham University1.574.8%1st Place
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6.77SUNY Maritime College2.5110.0%1st Place
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7.83Georgetown University2.097.2%1st Place
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8.51Old Dominion University1.816.0%1st Place
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8.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.467.0%1st Place
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8.84Webb Institute1.736.2%1st Place
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6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.7%1st Place
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9.49University of Pennsylvania1.594.2%1st Place
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11.09Princeton University1.872.7%1st Place
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7.8George Washington University2.197.3%1st Place
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10.46Catholic University of America1.313.5%1st Place
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8.98Cornell University1.704.9%1st Place
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9.86Washington College1.664.7%1st Place
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10.42Hampton University1.473.9%1st Place
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15.02William and Mary0.121.1%1st Place
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12.06Virginia Tech0.722.6%1st Place
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13.92Christopher Newport University0.480.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Edward Cook | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Jake Vickers | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| John McKenna | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 16.5% | 40.5% |
| Christopher Magno | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% |
| David Grace | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 17.5% | 23.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.