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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.01+4.34vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.09+5.75vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.19+4.74vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.66+6.09vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+1.58vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.81+2.68vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech0.72+5.06vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+0.12vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.12+6.10vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.59-0.75vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-1.20vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.51-5.11vs Predicted
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13Catholic University of America1.31-2.45vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.48-0.27vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.47-4.41vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.87-5.08vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.70-7.96vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.73-9.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.34U. S. Naval Academy3.0114.1%1st Place
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7.75Georgetown University2.097.4%1st Place
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7.74George Washington University2.197.6%1st Place
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10.09Washington College1.663.9%1st Place
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6.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.659.6%1st Place
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8.68Old Dominion University1.816.4%1st Place
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12.06Virginia Tech0.722.5%1st Place
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8.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.466.6%1st Place
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15.1William and Mary0.120.8%1st Place
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9.25University of Pennsylvania1.595.1%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University1.574.0%1st Place
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6.89SUNY Maritime College2.518.2%1st Place
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10.55Catholic University of America1.314.2%1st Place
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13.73Christopher Newport University0.481.2%1st Place
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10.59Hampton University1.474.0%1st Place
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10.92Princeton University1.873.4%1st Place
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9.04Cornell University1.705.7%1st Place
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8.76Webb Institute1.735.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 14.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Edward Cook | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Magno | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 40.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% |
| David Grace | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 18.9% | 22.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 4.8% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.