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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.19+6.70vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.57+7.52vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.01+2.41vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.87+7.04vs Predicted
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5Washington College1.66+4.90vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.73+2.73vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.47+3.30vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+0.07vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.51-2.24vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.09-1.99vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.81-2.53vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-5.75vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.48+0.84vs Predicted
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14Catholic University of America1.31-3.50vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.70-5.81vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.59-6.44vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-0.18-1.37vs Predicted
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18Virginia Tech0.72-5.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.7George Washington University2.197.8%1st Place
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9.52Fordham University1.574.9%1st Place
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5.41U. S. Naval Academy3.0113.0%1st Place
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11.04Princeton University1.872.9%1st Place
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9.9Washington College1.664.2%1st Place
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8.73Webb Institute1.735.3%1st Place
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10.3Hampton University1.474.0%1st Place
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8.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.467.1%1st Place
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6.76SUNY Maritime College2.519.0%1st Place
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8.01Georgetown University2.096.6%1st Place
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8.47Old Dominion University1.816.6%1st Place
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6.25St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.3%1st Place
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13.84Christopher Newport University0.481.1%1st Place
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10.5Catholic University of America1.314.0%1st Place
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9.19Cornell University1.704.9%1st Place
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9.56University of Pennsylvania1.594.5%1st Place
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15.63William and Mary-0.180.9%1st Place
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12.12Virginia Tech0.722.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ehnot | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| JC Hermus | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Jake Vickers | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Edward Cook | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| David Grace | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 21.9% | 19.1% |
| John McKenna | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Sam Dutilly | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 49.8% |
| Christopher Magno | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.