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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+6.98vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.51+4.87vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+3.24vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.19+3.51vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.09+2.72vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.01-0.56vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.66+2.89vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.87+2.68vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.70-0.29vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.59-0.40vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.47-0.60vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-3.13vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.57-3.36vs Predicted
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14Catholic University of America1.31-3.51vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.81-6.38vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.73-2.95vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-0.18-1.27vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.48-4.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.466.5%1st Place
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6.87SUNY Maritime College2.518.6%1st Place
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6.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.8%1st Place
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7.51George Washington University2.198.2%1st Place
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7.72Georgetown University2.097.5%1st Place
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5.44U. S. Naval Academy3.0113.2%1st Place
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9.89Washington College1.665.0%1st Place
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10.68Princeton University1.872.9%1st Place
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8.71Cornell University1.705.6%1st Place
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9.6University of Pennsylvania1.594.6%1st Place
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10.4Hampton University1.474.0%1st Place
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8.87Webb Institute1.734.6%1st Place
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9.64Fordham University1.575.0%1st Place
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10.49Catholic University of America1.313.3%1st Place
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8.62Old Dominion University1.815.6%1st Place
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13.05Virginia Tech0.731.9%1st Place
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15.73William and Mary-0.180.7%1st Place
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13.58Christopher Newport University0.481.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Ehnot | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Edward Cook | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| JC Hermus | 13.2% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 2.3% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| John McKenna | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Young | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 13.5% |
| Sam Dutilly | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 16.2% | 49.4% |
| David Grace | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.